The election housing impact will shape Toronto home values more than any other single factor in 2025, because the next federal government will decide how quickly new homes are approved, how cheaply they can be financed, and how fast demand grows. This blog compares Liberal promises under Mark Carney with Conservative proposals from Pierre Poilievre and shows why many of Carney’s numbers strain credibility. Every promise could tilt prices, rents, and construction across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Carney’s Supply Pledge: Big Headline, Small Chance

Mark Carney says a new crown corporation called Build Canada Homes (BCH) will double national housing completions to 500,000 a year by 2030. Put simply, BCH would take unused federal land – old post-office depots, surplus military parcels, empty office blocks – rezone it for apartments, and build 2.8 million homes in ten years.

Three plain-language hurdles expose the weakness in that promise:

1. Time limits: Only twenty-four federal sites in the GTA are both vacant and serviced. Rezoning each one now takes 18 months on average; shaving that to six months needs new staff in every planning department.
2. Workforce limits: Construction already lacks about 60,000 skilled trades nationwide. Doubling completions means either importing thousands of workers or luring trades from private renovation work – both difficult and slow.
3. Factory limits: Modular factories large enough to roll out Carney’s target do not yet exist in Canada. Building them, plus training crews, would absorb half the mandate period.

Because those limits are structural, not political, the election housing impact of BCH is likely to be far smaller than the headline suggests. Buyers who wait for a flood of BCH homes may wait years; sellers who price today’s listings as if a flood is guaranteed could be disappointed.

Poilievre’s “Fire the Gatekeepers” Approach

Pierre Poilievre calls bureaucratic delay “the gatekeeper problem.” His plan is simpler: tie federal infrastructure money to housing approvals. If a city meets or beats its yearly target for new homes, it keeps or even adds grant dollars; fall short, and funding is withheld.

Key parts of the plan explained in everyday terms:

• Cash carrot and stick: Toronto would risk millions in transit grants unless it approves enough mid-rise and multiplex permits each year.
• GST break on rentals: Removing the five-per-cent federal sales tax from new purpose-built rentals lowers construction cost and could add thousands of units that now sit shelved.
• Federal land auctions: Fifteen per cent of dormant federal property would be sold, fully zoned, to the highest private bidder within two years.

For Toronto the election housing impact of this plan is direct: city hall either speeds approvals or loses funding. Builders prefer this route because the rules, though firm, are clear and do not require a new bureaucracy.

How Do the Numbers Compare?

Carney’s totals look bigger, but rely on doubling the pace of building in six years – something Canada has never done. Poilievre’s numbers are smaller yet still aggressive. For day-to-day buyers, the election housing impact of either target will matter only if approvals, labour, and financing all line up—history suggests they rarely do.

Interest-rate Expectations Under Both Leaders

• Carney backs the current Bank of Canada target of two-per-cent inflation and hints at just one more quarter-point cut in 2025.
• Poilievre promises central-bank independence but would review the inflation target; bond markets still price two quarter-point cuts next year because global rates are easing.

Hence, the election housing impact on mortgage costs may be mild no matter who wins: five-year fixed mortgages are forecast near 4.4 % by spring 2026 in either scenario.

Immigration and Demand

Carney keeps the existing inflow of 500,000 newcomers per year, arguing that more workers mean more houses built. Poilievre would cap immigration at 400,000 until rental vacancies recover. Fewer newcomers would ease pressure faster on downtown condo rents, shifting some demand into family neighbourhoods.

What Toronto Neighbourhoods Should Expect

• Scarborough, Etobicoke, York Region: Federally owned tracts here could be auctioned fast under Poilievre, adding lower-cost family homes. Carney’s BCH would also target these lands but faces longer design and funding delays.
• Mid-rise corridors: Success for either plan hinges on city approvals. If council chooses densification bonuses to keep grants under Poilievre, more six-storey walk-ups could break ground by 2027. BCH projects on post-office sites could follow, but only if trade labour expands.
• Downtown rentals: The GST rebate on new rentals appears in both platforms, yet Poilievre vows to pass it within his first budget. That certainty could quickly revive stalled towers in Liberty Village and the Golden Mile.

Straight Talk on Carney’s Track Record

Carney repeats that Canada has “built at scale before,” naming the record 413,000 housing starts in 1976. But in the seventies construction labour made up 6.1% of the workforce versus only 4.7% today, and zoning was looser. Recent Liberal programs tell a cautionary tale: the Housing Accelerator Fund pledged 100,000 starts in two years but logged fewer than 9,000 by spring 2025. Given that result, Carney’s promise of 88,000 GTA completions annually stretches credibility. The election housing impact of those claims could be to mislead voters into expecting relief that is practically impossible on schedule.

Practical Actions for Market Players

Buyers

• Stress-test budgets at 4.5 % because neither platform pushes rates below that in the short run.
• Watch city council: densification bonuses tied to grants under Poilievre may open multiplex options in detached zones.
• Compare developer incentives in rental projects that qualify for GST relief; discounts often pass through to early purchasers.

Sellers

• Consider listing before a wave of accelerated approvals in 2026, which could add competing inventory.
• Emphasize energy upgrades and secondary-suite potential—both align with incentives in either platform.
• Avoid pricing against Carney’s two-million-home promise; that inventory is unlikely to hit for years, so scarcity still commands a premium now.

Conclusion

The real election housing impact boils down to credibility and execution. Poilievre’s plan is narrower but relies on already-available tools: grants, tax rebates, zoning sticks, which can move quickly once legislation passes. Carney’s Build Canada Homes promises almost double the supply yet assumes labour, factory capacity, and municipal approvals will all transform at record speed. Historical data and current staffing shortfalls make that outcome highly doubtful. Toronto’s market therefore faces two paths: a focused, enforceable push for more homes by squeezing municipal delays, or a grand federal build-out hampered by the very bottlenecks it hopes to solve. Voters, buyers, and sellers should weigh which option offers results within a realistic timeline – and base their strategies on action, not aspiration.