The Bank of Canada decision on October 28 is the date on your calendar, not a reason to guess. The overnight rate is still 2.25 per cent. If you are buying, or your term is up, the useful question is which part of your payment can move that morning, and which quote has already moved while the Bank sat still.

I would not build a purchase or a renewal on a headline. I would get two numbers in writing before Wednesday, and I would know which one is allowed to change.

The September 2 hold is in my September Bank of Canada note. This one is only about the week in front of you.

What is already true

On September 2 the Bank held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent. That was the seventh hold in a row. The Bank also said the risks to inflation have grown, and that it will move the rate if it has to. October 28, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, is the next time it speaks, and it will publish a new forecast the same morning. As of October 16, the rate was still 2.25 per cent. Nothing has been decided.

If your mortgage floats, the number that matters is prime. At the big banks, the typical prime rate was 4.45 per cent on October 14. Each bank sets its own. Prime has usually moved when the overnight rate moves. I will not promise your lender does it the same morning. Ask them what your payment does if prime goes up by a quarter of a point, and what it does if the Bank leaves the rate alone.

People are arguing about a hike because the cost of living was up 3.1 per cent in September. The measures the Bank watches more closely were nearer 2 per cent. That is a reason to read the statement. It is not a reason for me to call the result.

What the Bank of Canada decision can change

A Bank of Canada decision moves the overnight rate. A variable payment, or a line of credit tied to prime, feels that if your lender passes it through. A fixed rate you have already signed does not. October 28 cannot reopen a mortgage you locked last spring.

A new fixed quote is a different story. Fixed rates follow bond yields, not the overnight rate. The posted five-year rate at the big banks, which is the rack rate and not the discount a strong borrower is offered, went from 6.09 per cent on September 30 to 6.19 per cent by October 14. The overnight rate did not move in that stretch. Waiting for Wednesday does not freeze the quote in your inbox today.

Qualifying is separate again. You are still tested at your contract rate plus 2 percentage points, or at 5.25 per cent, whichever is higher. A small change in the rate you are offered can change the price you are allowed to pay. It does not rewrite the rule. I keep that in the stress test guide.

What to do before the Bank of Canada decision

Use the days before the Bank of Canada decision to compare a real quote, not a prediction. Your rate hold has an expiry. The announcement does not.

• If you are buying, ask for the fixed quote and the variable quote on the same day, and ask which date the hold dies.
• If you are renewing, get your bank’s offer in writing and one other quote beside it. A straight switch has its own path, which I cover in the renewal straight switch note.
• If you are variable, ask whether the payment changes when prime changes, or whether the loan simply takes longer to pay off.
• If you are picking a term, that choice is the one in my fall mortgage note. Wednesday does not pick it for you.
• Do not waive a financing condition on the afternoon of October 28 because a headline felt urgent.
• If you close this month, confirm the hold still covers that closing date.

Final Thoughts

I am not calling a hike, and I am not calling a hold. The rate is 2.25 per cent until the Bank says otherwise. A variable payment can change after that. A fixed quote can change before it.

If you have a purchase, a renewal, or a rate hold that runs out this month, contact me with the date and whether it is a house or a condo. I will tell you what I would have in hand before October 28.