The June 2025 trends in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market reveal a dynamic yet cautious environment. In May 2025, home sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)’s MLS® System reached 6,244, up 11.5% from April but down 13.3% from May 2024, signalling a buyer’s market. The average selling price was 1,120,879, a 3.8% year-over-year decline, while the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark edged up 0.3% month-over-month to $1,012,800, though it was 4.5% lower than May 2024. New listings surged 14% year-over-year to 21,819, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 29%, well below the 40% threshold for a balanced market. Buyers are approaching purchases cautiously, influenced by economic uncertainties and expectations of monetary policy easing.

Market Snapshot: June 2025 Trends

The GTA housing market in May 2025 showed resilience with month-over-month gains, though annual comparisons indicate a softer market. Sales increased to 6,244, a notable 11.5% rise from April 2025, yet they trailed May 2024 by 13.3%. The average price of $1,120,879 grew 1.2% from April but fell 3.8% year-over-year, while the HPI benchmark of $1,012,800 reflected a 4.5% annual decline. The June 2025 trends suggest these patterns persist, with active listings soaring 41.5% year-over-year to 30,964 units. This high inventory, coupled with a low SNLR of 29%, empowers buyers with greater choice and reduced competition, shaping a market tilted in their favour.

Factors Influencing Affordability

Affordability in the GTA is evolving due to several key factors. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate, which peaked at 5.0% in July 2023, appears to be trending downward, with prime rates declining by March 2025. While a specific rate cut in June 2025 remains unconfirmed, anticipated reductions are likely to ease borrowing costs. Government initiatives also play a role. The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive ended in March 2024, but the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan now allows withdrawals up to $60,000 for purchases after April 16, 2024.

Additionally:

• Ontario offers first-time buyers a land transfer tax rebate up to $4,000.

• Toronto provides a municipal land transfer tax rebate up to $4,475.

• A proposed federal GST rebate for new homes signed after May 26, 2025, is under consideration, though details are pending.

TRREB reports slight affordability improvements in Q1 2025, driven by lower prices and modest income growth, but high GTA prices continue to challenge buyers.

Why Buyers Remain Cautious

Despite improved conditions, many buyers are holding back. Expectations of further Bank of Canada rate cuts are prompting some to delay purchases in hopes of securing lower mortgage rates. Economic uncertainties, including U.S.-Canada trade tensions, are also weighing on consumer confidence, with Q1 2025 surveys highlighting concerns about job security. Additionally, some buyers are focusing on saving larger down payments to reduce mortgage burdens and meet stress-test requirements. Ongoing discussions about potential stress-test reforms further encourage a wait-and-see approach, tempering demand in the current market.

June 2025 Trends Implications for Sellers and Investors

Seller Strategies

In a buyer’s market, sellers must adapt to attract interest. Competitive pricing based on recent comparable sales is critical to stand out in a high-inventory environment. Homes in May 2025 took 25–39 days to sell, up from 19 days in May 2024, reflecting slower sales. Professional staging and minor repairs can enhance appeal, while offering flexible closing dates or covering small closing costs can draw cautious buyers.

Investor Outlook

The rental market presents opportunities despite challenges. High rental inventory and softening demand due to reduced immigration create potential for buy-to-rent investors. Over the long term, the GTA’s strong immigration, limited developable land, and economic diversification underpin its appeal for capital appreciation, making it a compelling market for patient investors.

Practical Advice for Market Participants Based on June 2025 Trends

For Buyers

Buyers can leverage the current market by securing mortgage pre-approval to clarify borrowing capacity and lock in rates. Defining key criteria: such as neighbourhood and property features – streamlines the search process. Working with a real estate agent to set up MLS alerts ensures access to new listings, while coordinating financing and legal support enables swift, competitive offers.

For Sellers

Sellers should time listings strategically, potentially after economic announcements like rate decisions, to capture buyer interest. High-quality staging and photography are essential to differentiate properties in a crowded market. Pricing should reflect recent sold comparables, and offering minor concessions, such as covering closing costs, can facilitate negotiations.

Conclusion

The June 2025 trends in the GTA housing market highlight a buyer-friendly environment with rising inventory and improving affordability. May 2025 data shows steady sales growth, but economic uncertainties and anticipated rate cuts are moderating buyer activity. Sellers must focus on competitive pricing and presentation, while investors can explore rental opportunities and long-term growth potential. Success in this market hinges on strategic timing and informed decision-making.